Recently, Professor Wang Hanpeng's team from the Research Centre of Geotechnical and Structural Engineering of Shandong University made new progress in the field of prediction of coal and gas outburst disasters in mines, and published a research paper entitled "coal and gas outbreak prediction model based on extension theory and its application" in Process Safety and Environmental Protection (IF=6.158). Professor Wang Hanpeng is the corresponding author, doctoral student Wang Wei is the first author. Shandong University is the first author institute and the sole corresponding author institute.

With the gradual depletion of shallow coal resources, the depth of coal mining is steadily increasing, resulting in the increased frequency and intensity of coal and gas outbursts. In the coal and gas outburst process, considerable amounts of coal and gas are violently ejected, which results in significant harm. In addition, the main component of coal seam gas is methane, and the greenhouse effect of methane is 25 times that of carbon dioxide. Methane is the third most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after water vapour and carbon dioxide. A large amount of methane emitted in the outburst process will aggravate the greenhouse effect. Coal and gas outburst prediction to ensure safe coal mine production and protect the ecological environment has become a worldwide problem.

Professor Wang Hanpeng's team has been engaged in research on the disaster mechanism and prevention of coal and gas outburst for a long time. This research constructs an outburst risk prediction system and matter element extension prediction framework based on extension theory. The subjective and objective weights of the prediction indexes were determined according to the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and simple correlation function, respectively. Finally, the quantitative prediction model was established by the degree of correlation of the matter element level characterizing the risk level.

The outburst prediction model is used to predict the outburst risk of 12 groups of high gas mines. The prediction results of the model are basically consistent with the actual outburst on site, and the change law of the actual outburst coal and rock mass quality is basically consistent with the maximum risk level correlation value predicted.

Variation law of the outburst rock mass and the degree of correlation

The outburst prediction model is used to analyze the outburst prevention effect in the process of gas drainage. Gas drainage mainly reduces the outburst risk by reducing the gas pressure, and the change of gas content has little impact on the outburst risk. Based on this law, it can better guide the prevention of outburst in coal mine.

Link to the article: https://www.webofscience.com/wos/alldb/full-record/WOS:000704392700002